Last year Florida's population declined by 57,000 residents, the first such drop in residency in the state since the troops went back up north after World War II. Pundits predicted that Florida’s powerful growth engine had, like many of its citizens, gone into retirement. Time Magazine dubbed Florida, “the sunset state.”
But, after living through a season of sub-zero temperatures, approximately 40% of that number, about 23,000 people, realized that there is a very good reason that Florida is nicknamed, “the sunshine state,” and they filed back in.
Florida’s previous annual average population growth averaged about 300,000 people per year since the late 1940s. During the housing boom from 2003-2006, numbers of those moving in surged to almost 400,000 per year. Compared to these historic migrational highs, the 23,000 new arrivals are a drop in the population bucket. Nonetheless, that relatively small influx shows that Florida still retains its allure for those seeking residence in a year-round climate of comfort.
The Bureau of Economic and Business Research suggests that gains in Florida’s population are not likely to reach their former, high averages until 2014 -2015. This may be an indicator that the decline in Florida’s economy is slowing. However, the slower growth rate also indicates that Florida’s economic growth can no longer rely solely on the impetus provided by an influx of new residents.
According to Sean Smith, Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness (IEC), this surprising pop in population is likely to produce a multiplier effect. Historically, areas that have attracted rapid growth will attract businesses and job seekers.
However, no matter how attractive its climate, Florida is not likely to experience larger leaps in population growth until two significant events occur: first, the state must find a way to generate more jobs; second, the nation’s real estate malaise must improve to the point where retirees in the other 49 states can sell their homes so they can move to Florida. According to the IEC, and to Warren Buffet’s recent statements, that is not expected to occur until next year.
Despite this year’s rate of marginal growth, Florida’s population is expected to reach 25 million people by 2035, which is an increase of 25% over its current figure of approximately 20 million residents.
During the last decade, according to the U. S. Census Bureau ,Florida’s Flagler County, gained the distinction of being the fastest growing county in the county based on percentage of population growth. Unfortunately, along with that growth rate, the county is now faced with the dubious honor of having an unemployment rate of 16.9%, far higher than the 11.7% for the rest of Florida. Nonetheless, Flagler’s growth rate is predicted at 109% over the next 30 years, surpassed only by Sumter County’s population expectation of 111% growth.
Perhaps more startling than the predictions of population growth are these thoughts about condominiums from the consulting company, Metrostudy. This firm tells the Palm Beach Post that the population growth that sweeps into Florida by the middle of this decade will not only fill the current glut of vacant condos in South Florida, but will create in a new wave of condo building before 2020.
Source: http://www.huliq.com/1/91818/floridas-population-pops-back
Written by Marc Jablon. Marc is a real estate analyst based in Florida and is with Realty Associates.
marcjablon@yahoo.com / 561-213-6139
www.MarcJablonHomes.com
The Criscitos has been selling South Florida luxury and commercial real estate for over a decade and has sold over $1 billion dollars of property. They work as a multi-lingual team speaking english, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese. They carved out a niche as a leading boutique real estate company with two distinct divisions -residential and commercial- both personally overseeing by Marcela and Anthony Criscito.
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