Mortgage modifications double in December, with more in the wings

The number of properties heading to the market may be much larger than anyone thought and appears likely to swamp South Florida with more deeply discounted homes, clouding the prospects for a housing recovery.

Figures from the Florida Association of Realtors released Friday show that South Florida's median home prices have stabilized over the past several months and sales are up year-over-year as the number of properties on the market shrinks.

But an analysis of the so-called shadow market done for The Miami Herald suggests the number of homes and condos in the pipeline to come on the market in South Florida is nearly five times larger than all residential properties currently listed for sale by Realtors. LPS Applied Analytics, a firm that supplies loan data to the federal government, did the analysis on the shadow market, which refers to properties that will eventually be listed for sale -- because they are about to enter foreclosure, are in foreclosure or already owned by banks.

Economists and real estate analysts say the forces of supply and demand mean prices have further to fall because there will be more homes on the market than people to buy them, forcing sellers -- in this case, banks that have taken homes back in foreclosures -- to further cut prices.

``That's what everybody is afraid of,'' said Jesse Acevedo, president of the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Lauderdale. He recently conducted his own shadow market analysis by cross-referencing the public record with the MLS, a Realtor database, for properties in Tamarac. He said banks owned about 300 homes, but had listed only 81 for sale.

The Florida Association of Realtors numbers released Friday show that in September new buyers and investors continued to eat away at the mass of existing homes for sale at a steady pace.

Single-family home sales in Miami-Dade were up 51 percent from the same month a year ago; condo sales were up 73 percent. In Broward, home sales rose 31 percent from last year and condo sales jumped 57 percent, according to the Realtors.

But such figures provide only a partial snapshot of the overall housing market.

For every home sold in Miami-Dade, lenders took back almost four through foreclosure auction, according to LPS data. In Broward, for every sale, banks took back six properties, according to LPS' analysis, which uses sales information from the public record, not Realtor data that captures only sales through agents.

``This foreclosure hangover is going to prevent any substantial price recovery and could even lead general market statistics downward,'' said Adam Cappel, a market analyst and principal of Miami-based CondoReports.com.

While the number of homes on the market in Miami-Dade has shrunk 36 percent since last year to 26,296 homes, the number of loans 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process stood at 122,800 in September, according to LPS. In Broward, listings fell by 41 percent to 18,919, yet 88,863 homes were being queued up for the market.

A few caveats: A percentage of those homes, though small, will not be taken back by banks because they are sold or the owner catches up on loan payments. Also, some of them may already be listed for sale. Meanwhile, though, a flurry of activity at the lower price range reduced the median home price in Miami-Dade to $190,900, down 30 percent compared to a year ago, according to the Realtor data. The median condo price fell to $132,900, a drop of 37 percent versus last September.

In Broward, the median single-family home price fell to $200,000 from $259,300, a fall of 23 percent. The median condo price dropped to $78,000 from $129,000 last year, a 40 percent decline.

Earlier this week, Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm, forecast that Miami average home values will plunge another 30 percent by June 2010, on top of price declines of 48 percent since peaking in 2006. Prices are forecast to fall another 26 percent in Fort Lauderdale.

David Stiff, Fiserv's chief economist, said the forecast is based on a number of economic variables, including home affordability, demographic trends and household growth. He said inventory levels going forward were a major concern.

``If you look at markets across the U.S., the Miami area has some of the largest foreclosure numbers. In addition to that, there was a lot of overbuilding,'' Stiff said. Ken Thomas, a Miami-based banking analyst and economist, however, said he expected prices to fall no more than 20 percent on average. But, he added, ``one thing this crisis has taught us is that no matter what we predict, things are always much worse than we believed.''

Acevedo, of the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Lauderdale, took a more optimistic view. As long as banks refrain from dumping homes on the market, and the courts, which are understaffed and overwhelmed, continue to serve as a kind of control valve, slowing the pace of bank take-backs, price can still hold.

``When are the banks going to put it out and how much at a time and why are they holding on to it? Everybody is speculating on those issues,'' he said.

As it is, bank-owned properties in decent shape are selling for above list prices as buyers compete for bargains. Good deals are dwindling, meaning buyers will have to choose from homes listed at higher price ranges.

``Right now, buyers can't find properties at the lower end because those foreclosures were feeding first-time home buyers and investors,'' Acevedo said.

Source: http://www.miamiherald.com/163/story/1297561.html